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World Investment Report 2008

Key Messages

RECORD FLOWS IN 2007, BUT SET TO DECLINE
Global FDI flows surpassed the peak of 2000

After four consecutive years of growth, global FDI inflows rose in 2007 by 30% to reach $1,833 billion, well above the previous all-time high set in 2000. Despite the financial and credit crises, which began in the second half of 2007, all the three major economic groupings – developed countries, developing countries and the transition economies of South-East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – saw continued growth in their inflows. The increase in FDI largely reflected relatively high economic growth and strong corporate performance in many parts of the world. Reinvested earnings accounted for about 30% of total FDI inflows as a result of increased profits of foreign affiliates, notably in developing countries. To some extent, the record FDI levels in dollar terms also reflected the significant depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies. However, even measured in local currencies, the average growth rate of global FDI flows was still 23% in 2007.

 

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Driven by record values of cross-border M&As

Continued consolidation through cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) contributed substantially to the global surge in FDI. In 2007, the value of such transactions amounted to $1,637 billion, 21% higher than the previous record in 2000. Thus, overall, the financial crisis, starting with the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States, did not have a visible dampening effect on global crossborder M&As in 2007. On the contrary, 2008 in the latter half of 2007 some very large deals took place, including the $98 billion acquisition of ABNAMRO Holding NV by the consortium of Royal Bank of Scotland, Fortis and Santander – the largest deal in banking history – and the acquisition of Alcan (Canada) by Rio Tinto (United Kingdom).

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The largest TNCs pursued further expansion abroad

The production of goods and services by an estimated 79,000 TNCs and their 790,000 foreign affiliates continues to expand, and their FDI stock exceeded $15 trillion in 2007. UNCTAD estimates that total sales of TNCs amounted to $31 trillion – a 21% increase over 2006. The value added (gross product) of foreign affiliates worldwide represented an estimated 11% of global GDP in 2007, and the number of employees rose to some 82 million

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While sovereign wealth funds are emerging as new actors on the FDI scene

A new feature of global FDI is the emergence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as direct investors. Benefiting from a rapid accumulation of reserves in recent years, these funds (with $5 trillion assets under management) tend to have a higher risk tolerance and higher expected returns than traditional official reserves managed by monetary authorities. Although the history of SWFs dates back to the 1950s, they have attracted global attention only in recent years following their involvement in some large-scale cross-border M&A activities and their major capital injections into some troubled financial institutions in developed countries.

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Most national policy changes continued to encourage FDI, though less favourable measures became more frequent

Despite growing concerns and political debate over rising protectionism, the overall policy trend remains one of greater openness to FDI. UNCTAD’s annual survey of changes in national laws and regulations that may influence the entry and operations of TNCs suggests that policymakers are continuing in their efforts to make the investment climate more attractive. In 2007, of the almost 100 policy changes identified by UNCTAD as having a potential bearing on FDI, 74 aimed at making the host country environment more favourable to FDI. However, the proportion of changes that were less favourable to FDI has been increasing over the past few years.

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The global financial crisis had a limited impact on FDI flows in 2007, but will begin to bite in 2008

The sub-prime mortgage crisis that erupted in the United States in 2007 has affected financial markets and created liquidity problems in many countries, leading to higher costs of credit. However, both micro- and macroeconomic impacts affecting the capacity of firms to invest abroad appear to have been relatively limited so far. As TNCs in most industries had ample liquidity to finance their investments, reflected in high corporate profits, the impact was smaller than expected. At the macroeconomic level, developed-country economies could be affected both by the slowdown of the United States economy as well as by the impact of the turmoil in the financial markets on liquidity. As a result, both inflows to and outflows from these countries may decline. On the other hand, the relatively resilient economic growth of developing economies may counteract this risk.

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In Africa, high commodity prices and rising profitability attracted FDI

In Africa, FDI inflows grew to $53 billion in 2007 – a new record. Booming commodity markets, rising profitability of investments – the highest among developing regions in 2006-2007 – and improved policy environments fuelled inflows. LDCs in Africa also registered another year of growth in their FDI inflows. A large proportion of the FDI projects launched in the region in 2007 were linked to the extraction of natural resources. The commodity price boom also help Africa to maintain the relatively high level of outward FDI, which amounted to $6 billion in 2007.

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In South, East and South-East Asia and Oceania, both inward and outward FDI flows rose to their highest levels ever

FDI flows to South, East and South-East Asia and Oceania were also higher than ever before, reaching $249 billion in 2007. Most subregions and economies, except Oceania, received higher inflows. A combination of favourable business perceptions, progress towards further regional economic integration, improved investment environments and country-specific factors contributed to the region’s performance. China and Hong Kong (China) remained the two top destinations within the region as well as among all developing economies. Meanwhile, India – the largest recipient in South Asia – and most member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also attracted larger inflows, as did post-conflict countries and Asian LDCs, such as Afghanistan, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Timor-Leste.

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West Asia also saw record flows in both directions

FDI in West Asia rose by 12% to $71 billion, marking a new record and a fifth consecutive year of growth. More than four fifths of the inflows were concentrated in three countries: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, in that order. A growing number of energy and construction projects, as well as a notable improvement in the business environment in 2007, attracted FDI into members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). For example, Qatar experienced a significant rise in inflows – more than seven times higher than in 2006.

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While the surge of FDI into Latin America and the Caribbean was mainly driven by the demand for natural resources

Latin America and the Caribbean saw inflows rise by 36% to a historic high of $126 billion. The increase was the highest in South America (66%), where most of the $72 billion worth of inflows targeted the extractive industries and natural-resourcebased manufacturing. Inflows to countries in Central America and the Caribbean (excluding offshore financial centres) increased by 30% to $34 billion, despite the economic slowdown in the United States. This resilience was partly explained by the dynamism of FDI in mining, steel and banking, which are not oriented primarily towards the United States market.

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FDI to and from South-East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States maintained an upward trend and set new records

As in most other regions, inflows to and from South-East Europe and the CIS reached unprecedentedly high levels. Inward FDI rose for a seventh consecutive year, to reach $86 billion – 50% more than in 2006. In the CIS, these inflows were mainly attracted to fast growing consumer markets and natural resources, while those to South-East Europe were associated with privatizations. Inward FDI in the Russian Federation increased by 62%, to $52 billion.

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In developed countries FDI inflows and outflows appear to have peaked

Despite concerns over the economic uncertainty faced by some developed economies, FDI inflows to developed countries as a whole surged by 33% in 2007, to reach $1,248 – yet another record. The rise was mainly driven by cross-border M&As, but also by reinvested earnings as a result of high profitability of foreign affiliates. The United States retained its position as the world’s largest FDI recipient country. The restructuring and concentration process in the enlarged common market of the EU countries led to a renewed wave of cross-border acquisitions. Large FDI flows to the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands and Spain drove overall FDI inflows to the EU to $804 billion – a 43% increase. Japan’s FDI inflows grew strongly for the first time since the end of the 1990s.

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TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS AND THE INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGE
There are huge unmet investment needs for infrastructure in developing countries

The provision of good quality infrastructure is a prerequisite for economic and social development. Indeed it is considered one of the main preconditions for enabling developing countries to accelerate or sustain the pace of their development and achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set by the United Nations. Moreover, the future investment needs of developing countries in infrastructure far exceed the amounts being invested by governments, the private sector and other stakeholders, resulting in a significant financing gap. On average, according to World Bank estimates, developing countries currently invest annually 3–4% of their GDP in infrastructure; yet they would need to invest an estimated 7–9% to achieve broader economic growth and poverty reduction goals.

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TNC participation in infrastructure has increased substantially, including in developing and transition economies

Infrastructure industries account for a rapidly expanding share of the stock of inward FDI. Over the period 1990–2006, the value of FDI in infrastructure worldwide increased 31-fold, to $786 billion, and that in developing countries increased 29-fold, to an estimated $199 billion. Throughout the period it continued to grow in most infrastructure industries, but most significantly in electricity and telecommunications, and much less in transport and water. As a whole, the share of infrastructure in total FDI stock globally currently hovers at close to 10% compared to only 2% in 1990.

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Developing-country firms are significant infrastructure TNCs and are becoming prominent investors in other developing countries

Although developed-country TNCs still dominate in infrastructure industries internationally, there has been a marked rise involvement by developing-country TNCs. In some industries, such as telecommunications, they have emerged as major players, and in others, such as transport, they have even become world leaders. Of the top 100 infrastructure TNCs in the world in 2006, 14 were from the United States, 10 from Spain, and 8 each from France and the United Kingdom. However, of the top 100 infrastructure TNCs, no less than 22 were headquartered in a developing or transition economy. The largest number of such firms was from Hong Kong (China) with 5 firms, and Malaysia and Singapore with 3 each.

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TNCs in infrastructure derive their competitive advantages from a variety of sources and invest abroad mostly to access markets

Competitive or ownership advantages of infrastructure TNCs are primarily related to specialist expertise or capabilities, such as network design and operation, engineering skills, environmental knowhow, project management capabilities and tacit, hands-on skills. Specialized business models and financial prowess are important in some industries and segments, such as telecommunications.

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TNCs’ mobilization of financial resources for infrastructure investment is rising, but a vast gap remains

Financial constraints faced by governments were a major reason for an increasing number of developing countries to open up to FDI and TNC participation in infrastructure industries in the 1990s. TNC participation in infrastructure in developing countries has resulted in the inflow of substantial financial resources. The stock of infrastructure FDI in developing countries, an indicator of the extent to which TNC participation mobilizes financial resources, surged after 1990, as mentioned above.

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TNC investment in developing country infrastructure affects industry performance

TNCs in infrastructure bring both hard technology (e.g. specialist equipment for water purification) and soft technology (e.g. organizational and managerial practices) to their operations in host countries. As regards hard technology in telecommunications, for instance market entry by international operators from both developing and developed countries has contributed to lowering the threshold of access to and usage of information and communication technologies for developing countries. TNCs also transfer soft technology to host-country operations, for instance by re-engineering operational processes, improving procurement and subcontracting practices, and enhancing client records and collection methods. Overall, studies show that in a number of cases the introduction of hard and soft technology by foreign affiliates has helped enhance productivity in services provision, as well as its reliability and quality. However context matters, and performance gains as a consequence of TNC (and more generally private) involvement depend very much on a welldefined regulatory environment.

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With implications for the provision of infrastructure services and universal access

The participation of TNCs has generally increased the supply and improved the quality of infrastructure services in host countries, but their impact on prices has varied. In some instances this has caused concern over services being priced beyond the reach of the poor. In particular, the affordability of services is jointly determined by the price of services and the disposable income of consumers in an economy. The impact of TNC participation on access to services can thus differ among segments of a society: improvements in industry performance do not necessarily translate into increased availability and affordability of services for all members of a society, especially the poor and people living in rural, remote and economically deprived areas.

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Leveraging TNC participation is a complex policy challenge

Host countries need to consider when it is appropriate to draw TNCs into the development and management of infrastructure. They also need to find ways of ensuring that projects with TNC involvement lead to the expected development effects. This is a complex policy challenge. As policy priorities and options vary between countries, so too does the optimal mix of public and private (including TNC) investment. Designing and implementing appropriate policies to harness the potential role of TNCs in infrastructure require adequate skills and capabilities. Governments need to prioritize among competing demands for different projects, establish clear and realistic objectives for the projects chosen, and integrate them into broader development strategies. This means that government agencies have to possess the necessary institutional capacity and skills to guide, negotiate, regulate and monitor the projects. This applies not only at the central level, but also in provincial and municipal governments.

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Countries seek greater TNC involvement in infrastructure, but openness varies by industry

The trend towards opening has been more widespread among developed countries and the relatively advanced developing and transition economies. While the nature of liberalization has varied, all groups of countries are now more welcoming to TNC activities in infrastructure than they were two decades ago. However, there are significant variations by industry. Openness is the highest in mobile telecommunications, and the lowest in water. Countries are generally more open to TNC involvement in industry segments that are relatively easy to unbundle and expose to competition. Openness also appears to be greater in countries with more developed institutional and regulatory capabilities. At the same time, some governments are becoming more careful about allowing foreign companies to take control of certain infrastructure, including power generation and distribution, port operations and telecommunications. New restrictions have been proposed based on national security or public interest concerns.

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Securing development gains requires an appropriate governance framework and strong government capabilities

Without an adequate institutional and regulatory framework, the risk increases that countries will lose out by opening up to TNC participation. Moreover, once a country liberalizes, it is often hard to reverse the process. This is why the sequencing of reforms is important. Ideally, competitive restructuring, the introduction of regulations and the establishment of an independent regulatory agency should precede steps towards opening up. Such a sequence helps clarify the rules of the game for potential investors and makes governments better prepared for engaging in a specific project. However, in reality, opening up to foreign investment has often preceded comprehensive reform, with less positive outcomes as a result. Until credible regulatory bodies can be established, developing countries are likely to be better off keeping their utilities in the public sector.

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Many investment disputes are related to infrastructure

An issue that has attracted increased attention in recent years is the rise of disputes related to infrastructure investments. At the end of 2007, some 95 disputes (or one third of all known treaty-based investor-State disputes) were related to electricity, xxiv World Investment Report 2008: Transnational Corporations and the Infrastructure Challenge transportation, telecommunications, water and sanitation. The disputes have provoked debate over the implications of international investment agreements (IIAs), and especially BITs.

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Stronger commitments from the international community is needed

It is important to consider the potential role of home countries and the international community in facilitating more foreign investments into countries that seek such inflows. This is particularly relevant from the perspective of low-income countries, which lack domestic capabilities and have generally failed to attract significant TNC involvement in infrastructure. Without some form of subsidies, it is difficult to attract TNC investment into economies, communities and industry segments that are characterized by weak purchasing power and poor records of payment. In these cases, development finance institutions can act as catalytic financiers. Especially in such industries as electricity, water and transport, there is significant potential for synergies between foreign investment and overseas development assistance (ODA). By making more funds available, development partners and the home countries of the investing firms could play a major role in helping to “crowd in” foreign investment into infrastructure projects in developing countries.

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Including to mitigate risk and build capacity in low-income countries

Risk-mitigation measures by home countries and international organizations can help in the short term to mobilize private financing of infrastructure projects in developing and transition economies. Special attention may have to be given to measures aimed at mitigating three broad types of risk: political risk (including sub-sovereign and contractual and regulatory risks), credit risk and exchange-rate risks. OVERVIEW xxv Despite the plethora of risk-mitigation instruments available, current programmes are insufficiently tailored to the situation of low-income countries. For example, local currency financing by development finance institutions typically requires a well-established currency swap market. Where such a market exists, intervention by development finance institutions is less likely to be needed. At the same time, risk-mitigation instruments should not be seen as a panacea. Too much risk mitigation may lead to problems of moral hazard and encourage reckless risk-taking on the part of investors and lenders. While risk-mitigation tools can facilitate the mobilization of private debt and equity, they do not make poorly structured projects more viable. This underscores the importance of capacity-building efforts.

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